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Week in FX Americas – BoC’s Poloz to Stay the Course

Week in FX Americas – BoC’s Poloz to Stay the Course

Nov 29, 2014

Friday's surprising +2.8% annualized Canadian gross domestic product (GDP) gain in the third quarter is unlikely to persuade Governor Stephen Poloz at the Bank of Canada (BoC) to change course anytime soon. Canada's is a commodity-rich and sensitive economy. With oil representing about +20% of Canadian exports, the recent...

Week in FX Asia – JPY Weaker But Is it Weak Enough?

Week in FX Asia – JPY Weaker But Is it Weak Enough?

Nov 29, 2014

Softer economic data out of Japan drove the USD/JPY higher even after policymakers and analysts stated that the JPY was weak enough. Inflation continued gaining year-over-year, but it has been doing so at the slowest pace since the April sales tax hike was imposed on the island nation. Core...

Weekly Focus: OPEC Disagreements Good News for Private Consumers

Weekly Focus: OPEC Disagreements Good News for Private Consumers

Nov 29, 2014

The lower oil price is set to support consumers but keep eye on financial risks. Risk assets are supported by recovery expectations and liquidity. The euro area is bottoming. We expect the US soft patch to be short. Norway's growth outlook has weakened, while Denmark is stronger than expected and domestic demand is...

We Expect Euro Inflation to Decline to 0.1% in December

We Expect Euro Inflation to Decline to 0.1% in December

Nov 28, 2014

Euro inflation declined back to 0.3% y/y in November after it was 0.4% y/y in October. The latest decline in oil prices implies, we currently expect inflation to decline to 0.1% y/y in December. Hence, it is very close to the deflation limit and the pressure on the ECB...

USDRUB: Will the Russian Authorities Intervene?

USDRUB: Will the Russian Authorities Intervene?

Nov 28, 2014

The Ruble has been the worst performing currency in the expanded majors' space this week, falling more than 5% versus the USD and the EUR. If you thought things were bad for the RUB on the back of the Western sanctions, yesterday's news that Opec would not cut its...

Week in FX Europe – No Thanksgiving for OPEC

Week in FX Europe – No Thanksgiving for OPEC

Nov 28, 2014

Energy prices continue to make records. Today, OPEC (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is back calling the shots, and putting the squeeze on global crude producers, commodity currencies, trade balances and Russia in particular, after yesterday's stand-pat decision to maintain its existing daily production of +30M bpd....