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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary

Dec 20, 2014

It was a busy week for both fiscal and monetary policy. After last week's cliff hanger vote in the House of Representatives, the Senate took up and passed legislation to keep the federal government funded through the end of the current fiscal year in September. The Department of Homeland...

The Weekly Bottom Line

The Weekly Bottom Line

Dec 20, 2014

With plummeting oil prices, the end of unconventional monetary policy in the United States amidst its expansion in Europe and Japan, and turmoil in several emerging markets, 2014 will not be remembered as a restful year for markets. Taking a step back, one of the major themes of the...

Europe: What to Expect in January 2015

Europe: What to Expect in January 2015

Dec 20, 2014

The next few weeks will contain two key events for the currency bloc. First up is the final round of voting in the Greek Presidential election on 29th December. If the government's candidate for president is rejected, then the parliament in Athens will be dissolved and a general election...

The Dollar: a Year in Review

The Dollar: a Year in Review

Dec 20, 2014

With only a couple of weeks left until the end of the year it is worth evaluating FX performance this year. As you can see in the chart below, the USD has been a stand-out performer in both the G10 and EM FX spaces. The gains in the buck have

Weekly Focus: Oil Prices to Bottom in Q1 15

Weekly Focus: Oil Prices to Bottom in Q1 15

Dec 20, 2014

We expect the focus to remain on oil price development and Russia over the coming weeks. In the US, we estimate PCE core inflation was 1.5% y/y in November: The labour market report for December is due to be released in the first week of January. In the euro area, we...

Canadian Headline Inflation Rate Dips on Lower Energy Prices; Core Measure also Moved Downward

Canadian Headline Inflation Rate Dips on Lower Energy Prices; Core Measure also Moved Downward

Dec 19, 2014

The unadjusted all-items Canadian consumer price index (CPI) index decreased by 0.4% in November 2014, which was more than expected with forecasters looking for the index to post a 0.2% dip. The year-over-year inflation rate fell to 2.0% from 2.4% in October. Of the major components, prices for transportation,...